Application of decision tree for the production of orange: a proposal plan on the farm Recanto das Aguas

作者：Sampaio Anderson Rodrigues^*; de Lima Everton Henrique; Menezes da Silva Ricardo Luiz; Ciampaglia Nardi Paula Carolina

来源：Custos e Agronegocio, 2013, 9(4): 196-231.

• Strategic and operational planning
• Citrus
• Decision Tree

This paper aims to demonstrate the application of the decision tree for an agricultural company from Sao Paulo who cultivates oranges, helping the producer of orange to view key decisions and their results. This theme was chosen because of the lack of management tools focused to serve the informational demands of producers. This situation is characterized as an organizational problem, whose solution is presented by applying the decision tree, representing a proposition plan. In this sense, the estimates of the major costs and revenues associated with the production of oranges were obtained in farm Recanto das Aguas, from the choice of the region until revenue for the first crop. These data were allocated in the decision tree, revealing the main scenarios (sale to industry or market). After that, the estimated cash flows were analyzed according to three criteria diffused in the literature (payback, IRR and NPV), which indicated that the sale of the fruit to market presents more economically viable. Therefore, the main contribution of this work lies in the implementation of a decision model for the production of oranges, which requires analysis and preparation of future scenarios (decision tree).

• 出版日期2013-12