Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake

作者：von Kanel Lukas; Frolicher Thomas L; Gruber Nicolas

来源：Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44(15): 7909-7918.

DOI：10.1002/2017GL073578

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998–2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30‐member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal‐scale variability.</jats:p>

• 出版日期2017-8-16