A framework for the system-of-systems analysis of the risk for a safety-critical plant exposed to external events

作者：Zio E^*; Ferrario E

来源：Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2013, 114: 114-125.

DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2013.01.005

• External events risk analysis
• System of systems
• Muir Web
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

We consider a critical plant exposed to risk from external events. We propose an original framework of analysis, which extends the boundaries of the study to the interdependent infrastructures which support the plant. For the purpose of clearly illustrating the conceptual framework of system-of-systems analysis, we work out a case study of seismic risk for a nuclear power plant embedded in the connected power and water distribution, and transportation networks which support its operation. The technical details of the systems considered (including the nuclear power plant) are highly simplified, in order to preserve the purpose of illustrating the conceptual, methodological framework of analysis. Yet, as an example of the approaches that can be used to perform the analysis within the proposed framework, we consider the Muir Web as system analysis tool to build the system-of-systems model and Monte Carlo simulation for the quantitative evaluation of the model. The numerical exercise, albeit performed on a simplified case study, serves the purpose of showing the opportunity of accounting for the contribution of the interdependent infrastructure systems to the safety of a critical plant. This is relevant as it can lead to considerations with respect to the decision making related to safety critical-issues.

• 出版日期2013-6