Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

作者:Wang Litao; Jang Carey; Zhang Yang; Wang Kai; Zhang Qiang; Streets David; Fu Joshua; Lei Yu; Schreifels Jeremy; He Kebin; Hao Jiming*; Lam Yun Fat; Lin Jerry; Meskhidze Nicholas; Voorhees Scott; Evarts Dale; Phillips Sharon
来源:Atmospheric Environment, 2010, 44(28): 3442-3448.
DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.05.051

摘要

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO(2) in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)';s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO(2) and NO(x) emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios - the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO(2) control scenario, and the 2010 NO(x) control scenario-were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.