Multifractal Omori law for earthquake triggering: new tests on the California, Japan and worldwide catalogues

作者：Ouillon G^*; Sornette D; Ribeiro E

来源：Geophysical Journal International, 2009, 178(1): 215-243.

DOI：10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04079.x

• Time series analysis
• Wavelet transform
• Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering
• Self-organization
• Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction
• Statistical seismology

The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M(0), the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a(0)M + b(0) of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time- series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.

• 出版日期2009-7