Application of air quality combination forecasting to Bogota

作者：Westerlund Joakim^*; Urbain Jean Pierre; Bonilla Jorge

来源：Atmospheric Environment, 2014, 89: 22-28.

DOI：10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.015

• Air quality forecasting
• Bogota
• Forecast combination
• Neural networks

The bulk of existing work on the statistical forecasting of air quality is based on either neural networks or linear regressions, which are both subject to important drawbacks. In particular, while neural networks are complicated and prone to in-sample overfitting, linear regressions are highly dependent on the specification of the regression function. The present paper shows how combining linear regression forecasts can be used to circumvent all of these problems. The usefulness of the proposed combination approach is verified using both Monte Carlo simulation and an extensive application to air quality in Bogota, one of the largest and most polluted cities in Latin America.

• 出版日期2014-6