科研之友
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摘要
Urban haze has become a severe pollution problem in China. Vehicle emission may be a key factor leading to haze pollution in China's megacities due to the rapid growth of vehicles and corresponding energy consumption. Until now, the haze formation mechanisms in China remain highly uncertain, which have not yet been understood quantitatively. In this work, an efficient modified haze causation system related to vehicle emissions is developed for reliable quantified risk assessment of urban haze in China's megacities. And fuzzy mathematical theory combining with fault tree approach is investigated and employed as the analysis tool/strategy. To provide objective basis for the reliability and practicability of the quantitative assessment results, an efficient data extraction strategy and relevant mathematical models arc proposed and developed for the probability determination of basic risk events. Besides, the probability uncertainty of basic risk events during the data extraction is taken into account, where the occurrence probability of basic events is described as triangular fuzzy number, the quantitative analysis results will be more reliable and more tally with the actual situation. After the haze causation system related to vehicle emissions is established along with the identification of all critical risk factors related to vehicle emissions, Beijing and Tianjin are taken as illustrated case studies for the quantified risk assessment of haze causation system related to vehicle emissions in China. All the analysis results demonstrated that this work may provide a useful and effective tool/strategy for efficient quantified risk assessment and risk management of haze causation system relate to vehicle emission in China.
