An effective method to formulate state transition probability matrix of Markov model of large-scale system

作者：Liu Yanli; Yu Yixin^*

来源：Journal of Tianjin University, 2013, 46(9): 791-798.

DOI：10.11784/tdxb20130905

• Component state
• Markov model
• New England
• Probabilistic security assessment
• State transition probabilities
• State transitions
• System configurations
• System state

An effective method to formulate state transition probability matrix was presented. Component state transition rate matrix and system configuration array were defined. Consequently, system configurations were expressed in terms of arrays which can be conveniently stored and processed by computer, and transitions between system configurations were described efficiently. An effective method to calculate state transition rate without the limitation of the number of system states and component states was presented. A method to fast locate the non-zero elements was presented according to the rule of the distribution of non-zero elements, and then, sparse storage of the state transition probability matrix was formulated swiftly. In the case that components only have two states, the location of non-zero elements was straightly obtained based on given order of system state and service set array. Application to probabilistic security assessment, taking New England 10,generators and 39,buses system as example, verifies the effectiveness and availability of the method.

• 出版日期2013
• 单位天津大学