科研之友
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摘要
In Asia, limited literature has been published on the association between daily mortality and ambient air pollution. We examined the associations of daily cause-specific mortality with daily mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with a mass median aerodynamic diameter less than 10 mu m (PM10) in Wuhan, China using 4 years of data (2001-2004). There are approximately 4.5 million residents in Wuhan who live in the city core area of 201 km(2) where air pollution levels are higher and pollution ranges are wider than the majority of cities in the published literature. We use quasi-likelihood estimation within the context of the generalized additive models (GAMs) (natural spline (NS) models in R) to model the natural logarithm of the expected daily death counts as a function of the predictor variables. We found consistent PM10 effects on mortality with the strongest effects on lag 0 day. Every 10 mu g/m3 increase in PM10 daily concentration at tag 0 day was significantly associated with an increase in non-accidental (0.36%; 95% CI 0.19-0.53%), cardiovascular (0.51%; 95% CI 0.28-0.75%), stroke (0.44%; 95% CI 0.16-0.72%), cardiac (0.49%; 95% CI 0.08-0.89%), respiratory (0.71%; 95% CI 0.20-1.23%), and cardiopulmonary (0.46%; 95% CI 0.23-0.69%). In general, these effects were stronger among the elderly (>= 65 years or >= 45 years) than among the young. The exploration of exposure-response relationships between PM10 and cause-specific mortality suggests the appropriateness of assuming linear relationships, where the PM10 concentration in Wuhan ranged from 24.8 to 477.8 mu g/m(3). We conclude that there is consistent evidence of acute effects of PM10 on cardiopulmonary mortality. A linear no threshold exposure-response relationship is suggested between PM10 and the studied cause-specific mortality.
- 出版日期2007-11
- 单位武汉市疾病预防控制中心
