Minimizing asymmetric loss in medium-term wind power forecasting

作者：Croonenbroeck Carsten^*; Stadtmann Georg

来源：Renewable Energy, 2015, 81: 197-208.

DOI：10.1016/j.renene.2015.03.049

• Censored regression
• Wind energy
• Forecasting
• Power trading
• Asymmetric loss

In this article we propose a new wind power forecasting model that does not focus on providing the most precise forecasts, but minimizes the financial loss of forecasting impreciseness. We show that the loss function is asymmetric and therefore account for asymmetry during the estimation stage of our model. The new model's forecasts are compared to two state-of-the-Art models and we are able to show that the new model can increase the financial profit for power producers, power traders and/or network operators by a severe degree.

• 出版日期2015-9