Detecting structural change with heteroskedasticity

作者：Ahmed Mumtaz^*; Haider Gulfam; Zaman Asad

来源：Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2017, 46(21): 10446-10455.

DOI：10.1080/03610926.2016.1235200

• Bootstrap
• heteroskedasticity
• regime shift

The hypothesis of structural stability that the regression coefficients do not change over time is central to all applications of linear regression models. It is rather surprising that existing theory as well as practice focus on testing for structural change under homoskedasticity - that is, regression coefficients may change, but the variances remain the same. Since structural change can, and often does, involve changes in variances, this is a puzzling gap in the literature. Our main focus in this paper is to utilize a newly developed test (MZ) by Maasoumi etal. (2010) that tests simultaneously for break in regression coefficients as well as in variance. Currently, the sup F test is most widely used for structural change. This has certain optimality properties shown by Andrews (1993). However, this test assumes homoskedasticity across the structural change. We introduce the sup MZ test which caters to unknown breakpoints, and also compare it to the sup F. Our Monte Carlo results show that sup MZ test incurs only a low cost in case of homoskedasticity while having hugely better performance in case of heteroskedasticity. The simulation results are further supported by providing a real-world application. In real-world datasets, we find that structural change often involves heteroskedasticity. In such cases, the sup F test can fail to detect structural breaks and give misleading results, while the sup MZ test works well. We conclude that the sup MZ test is superior to current methodology for detecting structural change.

• 出版日期2017