科研之友
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摘要
Taking a published natural population life table of rice leaf roller, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), as an example, we estimated the population trend index, I, via re-sampling methods (jackknife and bootstrap), determined its statistical properties and illustrated the application of these methods in determining the control effectiveness of bio-agents and chemical insecticides. Depending on the simulation outputs, the smoothed distribution pattern of the estimates of I by delete-1 jackknife is visually distinguishable from the normal density, but the smoothed pattern produced by delete-d jackknife, and logarithm-transformed smoothed patterns produced by both empirical and parametric bootstraps, matched well the corresponding normal density. Thus, the estimates of I produced by delete-1 jackknife were not used to determine the suppressive effect of wasps and insecticides. The 95% percent confidence intervals or the narrowest 95 percentiles and Z-test criterion were employed to compare the effectiveness of Trichogramma japonicum Ashmead and insecticides (powder, 1.5% mevinphos + 3% alpha-hexachloro cyclohexane) against the rice leaf roller based on the estimates of I produced by delete-d jackknife and bootstrap techniques. At alpha = 0.05 level, there were statistical differences between wasp treatment and control, and between wasp and insecticide treatments, if the normality is ensured, or by the narrowest 95 percentiles. However, there is still no difference between insecticide treatment and control. By Z-test criterion, wasp treatment is better than control and insecticide treatment with P-value < 0.01. Insecticide treatment is similar to control with P-value > 0.2 indicating that 95% confidence intervals procedure is more conservative. Although similar conclusions may be drawn by re-sampling techniques, such as the delta method, about the suppressive effect of trichogramma and insecticides, the normality of the estimates can be checked and guaranteed, and the correlation among sequential life stages of rice leaf roller is also considered in the estimation. Judged by the P-values from Z-test, the delta method is more conservative.
