System reliability for non-repairable multi-state series-parallel system using fuzzy Bayesian inference based on prior interval probabilities

作者：Bamrungsetthapong Wimonmas; Pongpullponsak Adisak^*

来源：International Journal of General Systems, 2015, 44(4): 442-456.

DOI：10.1080/03081079.2014.976215

• non-repairable multi-state series-parallel system
• fuzzy multi-state system
• Bayesian approach
• exponential fuzzy number
• fuzzy Markov process

In this article, the fuzzy concepts are applied in analysis of the system reliability problem. The fuzzy number is used to construct the fuzzy reliability of the non-repairable multi-state series-parallel system (NMSS). The fuzzy failure rate function is represented by an exponential fuzzy number. By using this innovative approach, the fuzzy system reliability of NMSS is created. In order to analyse this fuzzy system reliability, the fuzzy Bayesian point estimate of fuzzy system reliability is made by the conventional Bayesian formula. And, the posterior fuzzy system reliability of NMSS is developed by Bayesian inference with fuzzy probabilities. Finally, the performance of the method is measured by the mean square error of fuzzy Bayesian point estimate for the fuzzy system reliability of NMSS.

• 出版日期2015-5-19