An integrated model for discrete and continuous decisions with application to vehicle ownership, type and usage choices

作者：Liu Yangwen; Tremblay Jean Michel; Cirillo Cinzia^*

来源：Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice , 2014, 69: 315-328.

DOI：10.1016/j.tra.2014.09.001

• Discrete-continuous model
• Monte-Carlo simulation
• Vehicle ownership
• Vehicle miles traveled
• US National Household Travel Survey

This paper proposes an integrated econometric framework for discrete and continuous choice dimensions. The model system is applied to the problem of household vehicle ownership, type and usage. A multinomial probit is used to estimate household vehicle ownership, a multinomial logit is used to estimate the vehicle type (class and vintage) choices, and a regression is used to estimate the vehicle usage decisions. Correlation between the discrete (number of vehicles) and the continuous (total annual miles traveled) parts is captured with a full variance-covariance matrix of the unobserved factors. The model system is estimated using Simulated Log-Likelihood methods on data extracted from the 2009 US National Household Travel Survey and a secondary dataset on vehicle characteristics. Model estimates are applied to evaluate changes in vehicle holding and miles driven, in response to the evolution of social societies, living environment and transportation policies.

• 出版日期2014-11