Assessing the effects of poverty in tuberculosis transmission dynamics

作者：Bhunu C P^*; Mushayabasa S; Smith R J

来源：Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2012, 36(9): 4173-4185.

DOI：10.1016/j.apm.2011.11.046

• Tuberculosis
• Rich
• Poverty
• Reproduction number
• Latin Hypercube Sampling
• Partial rank correlation coefficients

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is enhanced by poor living conditions. In this study, a deterministic model was developed to assess the impact of socioeconomic conditions on TB transmission, taking into account heterogeneous mixing patterns. The epidemic thresholds known as the reproduction numbers, as well as equilibria for the model, are determined and stabilities analysed. Results from the study suggest that TB transmission is more common in poverty-stricken communities than in rich communities, supporting the argument that TB is a disease of the poor. The outcome is significantly dependent on the probability of latency, so that if the number of fast TB cases could be reduced, the epidemic would significantly improve. Interestingly, our results illustrate that heterogeneous mixing of the rich and poor will make the epidemic worse, but homogenous mixing will slightly improve the outcome. Further, even when all other factors are equal, the poor contact rate will have more impact than the rich contact rate. It follows that the rich community can help themselves by helping those less fortunate.

• 出版日期2012-9