Assessing the reactivation potential of pre-existing fractures in the southern Karoo, South Africa: Evaluating the potential for sustainable exploration across its Critical Zone

作者：Dhansay Taufeeq^*; Navabpour Payman; de Wit Maarten; Ustaszewski Kamil

来源：Journal of African Earth Sciences, 2017, 134: 504-515.

DOI：10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2017.07.020

• Critical zone
• Shale gas extraction
• Fracture reactivation
• Hydraulic stimulation
• Fault kinematics

Understanding the kinematics of pre-existing fractures under the present-day stress field is an indispensable prerequisite for hydraulically increasing fracture-induced rock permeability, i.e. through hydraulic stimulation, which forms the basis of economically viable exploitation of resources such as natural gas and geothermal energy. Predicting the likelihood of reactivating pre-existing fractures in a target reservoir at particular fluid injection pressures requires detailed knowledge of the orientations and magnitudes of the prevailing stresses as well as pore fluid pressures. In the absence of actual in-situ stress measurements, e.g. derived from boreholes, as is mostly the case in previously underexplored "frontier areas", such predictions are often difficult.
In this study, the potential of reactivating pre-existing fractures in a likely exploration region of the southern Karoo of South Africa is investigated. The orientations of the present-day in-situ stresses were assessed from surrounding earthquake focal mechanisms, implying c. NW-SE oriented maximum horizontal stress and a stress regime changing between strike-slip and normal faulting. A comparison with paleo-stress axes derived from inverted fault-slip data suggests that the stress field very likely did not experience any significant reorientation since Cretaceous times. Maximum possible in-situ stress magnitudes are estimated by assuming that these are limited by frictional strength on pre-existing planes and subsequently, slip and dilation tendency calculations were performed, assuming hydrostatic pore fluid pressures of c. 32 MPa at targeted reservoir depth.
The results suggest that prevalent E-W and NW-SE oriented sub-vertical fractures are likely to be reactivated at wellhead pressures exceeding hydrostatic pore fluid pressures by as little as 2-5 MPa, while less prevalent sub-horizontal and moderately inclined fractures require higher wellhead pressures that are still technically feasible. Importantly, actual in-situ stress measurements are essential to test these theoretical considerations and to guide the design of safe and effective exploration linked to fracture manipulation, such as shale gas recovery.

• 出版日期2017-10