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摘要
The study of the temporal-spatial variability of dry sequences and the probability of their occurrence are particularly important in understanding the impact of climate change on droughts. This paper analyses the different properties of dry sequences, focussing on extreme condition, analysing their degree of spatial coherence, and their temporal variability. For the study, daily precipitation data are used for the period 1961-2000 throughout Argentina. The region north of 40 S is divided in two from the meridian of 63 W with highly differentiated 'dry' properties. The eastern region is more homogeneous where mean dry sequences last less than six days and long sequences of about 60 days. The Andean region shows a marked east-west gradient in any of the above properties, with extreme values of over 10 days (mean sequences) and 150 days (the longest sequences). At the seasonal level the above properties reflect a differential pattern according to the time of year under study. In the case of summer, when the dry sequences can be more harmful to crops, the maximum duration in the Pampa region can extend to about 25 days. Owing to the problems that dry sequences of over 30 days can produce in the different ecosystems and based on the above findings, the temporal-spatial variability is analysed, and a variability over the years, together with a progressive decrease in the occurrence of such events, is found. The study of extreme dry events provides useful tools that can be applied to different hydrological and agricultural needs. Furthermore, our climatological findings help validate climate models.
- 出版日期2011-3
