Multi-model vs. EPS-based ensemble atmospheric dispersion simulations: A quantitative assessment on the ETEX-1 tracer experiment case

作者：Galmarini S^*; Bonnardot F; Jones A; Potempski S; Robertson L; Martet M

来源：Atmospheric Environment, 2010, 44(29): 3558-3567.

DOI：10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.003

• Atmospheric dispersion
• Ensemble prediction system
• Multi-model ensemble
• ETEX

Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the ensemble prediction system (EPS) modeling. The multi-model approach relies on model simulations produced by different atmospheric dispersion models using meteorological data from potentially different weather prediction systems. The EPS-based ensemble is generated by running a single atmospheric dispersion model with the ensemble weather prediction members. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using the simulations performed for the ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also evaluated against measurement data. Among the most relevant results is that the multi-model median and the mean of EPS-based ensemble produced the best results, hence we consider a combination of multi-model and EPS-based approaches as an interesting suggestion for further research.

• 出版日期2010-9
• 单位中国原子能科学研究院