A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China

作者：Wang, Mingwei; Che, Yue^*; Yang, Kai; Wang, Min; Xiong, Lijun; Huang, Yuchi

来源：Energy Policy, 2011, 39(11): 6981-6990.

DOI：10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.041

• Low-carbon development plan
• The STIRPAT model
• Scenario analysis

To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40-45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO(2) emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO(2) emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO(2) emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO(2) emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.

• 出版日期2011-11
• 单位华东师范大学; 上海市环境科学研究院