Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

作者：Samia Noelle I^*; Kausrud Kyrre Linne; Heesterbeek Hans; Ageyev Vladimir; Begon Mike; Chan Kung Sik; Stenseth Nils C

来源：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011, 108(35): 14527-14532.

DOI：10.1073/pnas.1015946108

• climate forcing
• generalized threshold model
• wildlife reservoir of Yersinia pestis
• spillover to the human population

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic re-emerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

• 出版日期2011-8-30
• 单位西北大学