摘要

The reliability of over-year storage reservoirs has been traditionally estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation (behavior analysis), numerical solution of the stochastic reservoir equation (difference or integral equations), or by using approximations and empirical relationships. The case of persistent inflow, which is the case for most natural streams, adds complexity to the problem. Apart from simulation, which is the most flexible approach, other methods have had partial success in this case, and are mainly limited to the case of Markovian autocorrelation. This paper suggests an alternative method for calculating the reliability of over-year storage reservoirs with persistent gaussian inflow using basic probability principles and the numerical integration of the standard multi-variate normal distribution. It is shown that the classical probabilities of the reservoir being empty and those of spilling can be directly calculated based on the distribution of the critical drawdown and filling periods. The results obtained by the application of the proposed method compare very well with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and those reported in previous studies. The proposed method thus offers another alternative that should be useful in handling complex problems.

  • 出版日期2012-7-2