A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

作者：Elmer Florian^*; Seifert Isabel; Kreibich Heidi; Thieken Annegret H

来源：Risk Analysis, 2010, 30(1): 107-124.

DOI：10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01325.x

• Data collection
• Delphi survey
• direct damage
• expert elicitation
• flood risk analysis

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.

• 出版日期2010-1