科研之友
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摘要
Spatially aggregated extreme rainfall over India shows an increasing trend over the last 50years of the 20th century, while fine-resolution analysis reveals a spatially nonuniform trend. Analysis of 104years (1901-2004) extreme precipitation over India at 1 degrees resolution, using Extreme Value Theory, reveals that post-1950 extreme rainfall characteristics (intensity, duration, and frequency) and their trends are significantly different from those of before 1950, with spatial nonuniformity. Majority of the locations in India have post-1950 trends of extremes with a different sign as compared to pre-1950. Further investigations with statistical change point analysis reveal that fraction of grid points having post-1975 changes is maximum. Majority of the urbanized areas have post-1975 change points, while the same is not true for nonurban areas. As urbanization has intensified during 1971-1981 in India, these results indicate the possible impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall trends and patterns.
- 出版日期2013-6-28
