Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

作者：Heesterbeek Hans^*; Anderson Roy M; Andreasen Viggo; Bansal Shweta; De Angelis Daniela; Dye Chris; Eames Ken T D; Edmunds W John; Frost Simon D W; Funk Sebastian; Hollingsworth T Deirdre; House Thomas; Isham Valerie; Klepac Petra; Lessler Justin; Lloyd Smith James O; Metcalf C Jessica E; Mollison Denis; Pellis Lorenzo; Pulliam Juliet R C; Roberts Mick G; Viboud Cecile

来源：Science, 2015, 347(6227): 1216-U29.

DOI：10.1126/science.aaa4339

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

• 出版日期2015-3-13