Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand

作者：Huang Ya Ling; Lin Chin Tsai^*

来源：Quality and Quantity, 2011, 45(3): 513-524.

DOI：10.1007/s11135-010-9317-9

• Grey envelop prediction model (GEPM)
• Demand forecasting
• Seasonality
• Tourism demands

This study provides a flexible and mathematically precise method for forecasting tourism demand from all five continents of the globe to Taiwan and with potential to assist tourism operators and government officials in improving their management planning and strategy. This investigation applied the Grey Envelop Prediction Model (GEPM) to predict international passenger arrivals to Taiwan. The analysis result shows monthly, seasonal and annual predictions. The prediction values of international tourist numbers can answer the practical needs of managers, owners, and government departments and help in operational and management strategy development. The contributions of this study is provides an effective method for forecasting number of international visitors, and the result provided the flexible, accurate, and efficient interval predicted values used by researchers, mangers and administrators for developing manpower, finance, marketing, and administrative decision-making schemes.

• 出版日期2011-4