Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia

作者：Deo, Ravinesh C.^*; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Adamowski, Jan F.; Begum, Khaleda

来源：Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017, 128(1-2): 359-379.

DOI：10.1007/s00704-015-1706-5

• EXTREME RAINFALL
• NEURAL-NETWORK
• CLIMATE-CHANGE
• TRENDS
• SEVERITY
• PRECIPITATION
• TEMPERATURE
• VARIABILITY
• PREDICTION
• STREAMFLOW

Drought indices (DIs) that quantify drought events by their onset, termination, and subsequent properties such as the severity, duration, and peak intensity are practical stratagems for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of drought. In this study, the effective drought index (EDI) calculated over daily timescales was utilized to quantify short-term (dry spells) and ongoing drought events using drought monitoring data in Australia. EDI was an intensive DI that considered daily water accumulation with a weighting function applied to daily rainfall data with the passage of time. A statistical analysis of the distribution of water deficit period relative to the base period was performed where a run-sum method was adopted to identify drought onset for any day (i) with EDI (i) < 0 (rainfall below normal). Drought properties were enumerated in terms of (1) severity (AEDI ae accumulated sum of EDIi < 0), (2) duration (DS ae cumulative number of days with EDIi < 0), (3) peak intensity (EDImin ae minimum EDI of a drought event), (4) annual drought severity (YAEDI ae yearly accumulated negative EDI), and (5) accumulated severity of ongoing drought using event-accumulated EDI (EAEDI). The analysis of EDI signal enabled the detection and quantification of a number of drought events in Australia: Federation Drought (1897-1903), 1911-1916 Drought, 1925-1929 Drought, World War II Drought (1937-1945), and Millennium Drought (2002-2010). In comparison with the other droughts, Millennium Drought was exemplified as an unprecedented dry period especially in Victoria (EAEDI ae -4243, DS = 1946 days, EDImin = -4.05, and YAEDI = -4903). For the weather station tested in Northern Territory, the worst drought was recorded during 1925-1929 period. The results justified the suitability of effective drought index as a useful scientific tool for monitoring of drought progression, onset and termination, and ranking of drought based on severity, duration, and peak intensity, which allows an assessment of accumulated stress caused by short- and long-term (protracted) dry events.

• 出版日期2017-4
• 单位McGill