Avalanche Fatalities during Atmospheric River Events in the Western United States

作者：Hatchett Benjamin J^*; Burak Susan; Rutz Jonathan J; Oakley Nina S; Bair Edward H; Kaplan Michael L

来源：Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2017, 18(5): 1359-1374.

DOI：10.1175/JHM-D-16-0219.1

The occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in association with avalanche fatalities is evaluated in the conterminous western United States between 1998 and 2014 using archived avalanche reports, atmospheric reanalysis products, an existing AR catalog, and weather station observations. AR conditions were present during or preceding 105 unique avalanche incidents resulting in 123 fatalities, thus comprising 31% of western U.S. avalanche fatalities. Coastal snow avalanche climates had the highest percentage of avalanche fatalities coinciding with AR conditions (31%-65%), followed by intermountain (25%-46%) and continental snow avalanche climates (<25%). Ratios of avalanche deaths during AR conditions to total AR days increased with distance from the coast. Frequent heavy to extreme precipitation (85th-99th percentile) during ARs favored critical snowpack loading rates with mean snow water equivalent increases of 46 mm. Results demonstrate that there exists regional consistency between snow avalanche climates, derived AR contributions to cool season precipitation, and percentages of avalanche fatalities during ARs. The intensity of water vapor transport and topographic corridors favoring inland water vapor transport may be used to help identify periods of increased avalanche hazard in intermountain and continental snow avalanche climates prior to AR landfall. Several recently developed AR forecast tools applicable to avalanche forecasting are highlighted.

• 出版日期2017-5