A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

作者：Shafiee Shahriar^*; Topal Erkan

来源：Applied Energy, 2010, 87(3): 988-1000.

DOI：10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.09.012

• Historical fossil fuel prices
• Forecasting non-renewable energy price
• Long-term trend reverting
• Jump and dip diffusion

This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018.

• 出版日期2010-3