摘要

In this study, a fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainability under uncertainties. The model can not only deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distribution and fuzzy sets, but also analyze various policy scenarios related to varying degrees of economic penalty when expected targets are violated. A fuzzy function ranking method is introduced to solve the fuzzy sets, which can simplify the model's solving process and enhance its applicability. The established model is applied to planning regional ecosystem sustainability of Wuhan (China), in which ecosystem service assessment and land trading are incorporated into the optimization process. Solutions of land allocation, ecological compensation strategies and industrial pollutants mitigation schemes can be obtained. Results show that the system benefits in schemes with land trading are all higher than that with non-trading, and the industrial pollution discharges can be greatly reduced with land trading being considered. Maintaining the regional ecosystem integrity with consideration of an enforced wastewater mitigation permit results in a lower system benefit, while a higher system benefit can be attained with more emphasis on economic benefits and implementation of a loose wastewater mitigation permit. The findings can help local policy-makers gain deep insights into the trade-off between economic development and ecosystem protection, and obtain decision alternatives on regional ecosystem management and planning.