科研之友
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摘要
Water scarcity is a serious global issue, affecting every continent at least one month out of every year. How to ensure the sustainable development of the water resources has become a critical topic and received increasing attention from researchers. Sustainable development is the desired future for water resources in China, but it is complicate to define and quantified. In this paper, our motivation is to develop a water strategy based on China's circumstances, which can fall into the framework of sustainable development. An overview of current freshwater resource in China is provided, based on which the future water demand and storage capacities are appropriately predicted by using the grey model. Then an integrated water strategy consisting of four measures (desalination, price control, storage and water transfer) has been well developed accordingly. These four measures are aligned under the consideration of efficiency, feasibility and implementation cost through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Thus, for different provinces in China, different water strategies are proposed by practicing these four measures in the priority order. The goal is to guarantee that the balance between water supply and demand is reached. In order to validate the mathematical models, a sensitivity analysis of desalination decline rate is carried out. In addition, a discussion is made to assess the sustainability of our proposed strategy. In this study, we have demonstrated that our approach can guarantee the balance of supply and demand of water resource in China from now to year 2025 if the proposed integrated strategy will be taken into practice between years 2013-2018.
