Multiple Contributory Factors to the Age Distribution of Disease Cases: A Modeling Study in the Context of Influenza A(H3N2v)

作者：Gambhir Manoj^*; Swerdlow David L; Finelli Lyn; Van Kerkhove Maria D; Biggerstaff Matthew; Cauchemez Simon; Ferguson Neil M

来源：Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2013, 57(suppl_1): S23-S27.

DOI：10.1093/cid/cit298

• novel influenza
• emerging infection
• modeling
• zoonosis

Methods. We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution.
Results and Conclusions. Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.

• 出版日期2013-7-15