A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports

作者：Hwang Grace M^*; Mahoney Paula J; James John H; Lin Gene C; Berro Andre D; Keybl Meredith A; Goedecke D Michael; Mathieu Jennifer J; Wilson Todd

来源：Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 2012, 10(1): 32-42.

DOI：10.1016/j.tmaid.2011.12.003

• Influenza transmission
• Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) disease-spread
• modeling
• Public health aviation screening
• Pandemic response
• Points of entry

Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry.
The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R0): 1.53, 1.70, and 1.90. Empirical data from the pH1N1 virus were used to validate our SEIR model.
Time to entry to the U.S. during the early stages of a prototypical novel communicable disease was predicted based on the aviation network patterns and the epidemiology of the disease. For example, approximately 96% of origins (R-0 of 1.53) propagated a disease into the U.S. in under 75 days, 90% of these origins propagated a disease in under 50 days. An R-0 of 1.53 reproduced the pH1NI observations.
The ability to anticipate the rate and location of disease introduction into the U.S. provides greater opportunity to plan responses based on the scenario as it is unfolding. This simulation tool can aid public health officials to assess risk and leverage resources efficiently.

• 出版日期2012-1