A new fuzzy evidential reasoning method for risk analysis and control of a liquefied natural gas carrier system

作者：Nwaoha T C^*; Yang Z; Wang J; Bonsall S

来源：Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers - Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment , 2011, 225(M3): 206-225.

DOI：10.1177/1475090211411849

• liquefied natural gas containment system
• risk
• marine safety
• cost
• formal safety assessment
• fault tree analysis
• fuzzy set
• evidential reasoning
• uncertainty treatment

In this research, the safety/risk level of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier system is investigated through the application of a fuzzy evidential reasoning (FER) method to uncertainty treatment of its failure modes. A fuzzy set manipulation formula with multiple parameters such as consequence severity, failure consequence probability, and failure likelihood is used to assess the safety/risk levels of failure modes of the system. Such failure estimations are synthesized to evaluate the whole system's safety/risk level using an evidential reasoning (ER) approach. Risk control options (RCOs) are developed for reduction/control of high-risk level of the system. The best RCO, which is the one with the highest preference degree, is used to improve the safety level of the system.

• 出版日期2011