Modeling and simulating evacuation timing decisions during typhoon disasters

作者：Song, Yan; Sun, Dian^*; Su, Zifeng

来源：Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2018, 39(4): 793-798.

DOI：10.11990/jheu.201706043

• Bounded rationality
• Discrete choice models
• Evacuees
• Expected utility
• Game
• Interaction effect
• Timing decisions

To enable an improved estimate of the dynamic distribution of evacuation demands, traffic network clearance time, and improve typhoon evacuation efficiency, and by considering how strategic evacuation timing choices made by individuals aggregate to form an equilibrium distribution on the evacuation of people, a typhoon evacuation timing choice model based on quantal response equilibrium is established by integrating interaction factors for evacuees into the discrete choice model. To verify the feasibility and validity of the model, Matlab is used to analyze the effects of parameter changes on the evacuation timing decision under equilibrium strategies. Results show that the expected utility of evacuees, the interaction between individuals, and the individual inference ability have a significant influence on the evacuation time choices.

• 出版日期2018
• 单位哈尔滨工程大学