Natural flood management, land use and climate change trade-offs: the case of Tarland catchment, Scotland

作者：Iacob Oana; Brown Iain^*; Rowan John

来源：Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2017, 62(12): 1931-1948.

DOI：10.1080/02626667.2017.1366657

• climate change
• land-use change
• hydrological modelling
• catchment management
• flood risk

A distributed hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) was applied to a mesoscale catchment to investigate natural flood management as a nonstructural approach to tackle flood risks from climate change. Peak flows were modelled using climate projections (UKCP09) combined with afforestation-based land-use change options. A significant increase in peak flows was modelled from climate change. Afforestation could reduce some of the increased flow, with greatest benefit from coniferous afforestation, especially replacing lowland farmland. Nevertheless, large-scale woodland expansion was required to maintain peak flows similar to present and beneficial effects were significantly reduced for larger winter-type extreme floods. Afforestation was also modelled to increase low-flow risks. Land-use scenarios showed catchment-scale trade-offs across multiple objectives meant optimal flood risk solutions were unlikely, especially for afforestation replacing lowland farmland. Hence, combined structural/nonstructural measures may be required in such situations, with integrated catchment management to synergize multiple objectives.

• 出版日期2017