Estimating the benefit of an HIV-1 vaccine that reduces viral load set point

作者：Gupta Swati B^*; Jacobson Lisa P; Margolick Joseph B; Rinaldo Charles R; Phair John P; Jamieson Beth D; Mehrotra Devan V; Robertson Michael N; Straus Walter L

来源：Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2007, 195(4): 546-550.

DOI：10.1086/510909

Vaccines designed to induce cell-mediated immune responses against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 are being developed. Such vaccines are unlikely to provide sterilizing immunity but may be associated with reduced viral set points after infection. We modeled the potential impact of a vaccine that reduces viral set point after infection, using natural history data from 311 HIV-1 seroconverters. Log-normal parametric regression models were used to estimate the log median time to events of interest. Relative times were estimated for those with viral load set points of 30,000 copies/mL (reference group) versus those with lower viral set points. The time to key clinical events in the course of HIV-1 disease progression was significantly extended for those with viral set points 0.5-1.25 log(10) copies/mL lower than the reference group. By quantifying the anticipated clinical benefits associated with a reduction in viral set point, these findings support the use of virologic end points in HIV-1 vaccine trials.

• 出版日期2007-2-15
• 单位西北大学