A monte carlo assessment method of voltage sags based on combination weight

作者：Zeng, Jiang; Cai, Dongyang

来源：Power System Technology, 2016, 40(5): 1469-1475.

DOI：10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.05.026

• Combination weights
• Environment effects
• Failure Probability
• Fault probabilities
• Frequency distributions
• Guiding significances
• Probabilistic evaluation
• Voltage sags

In view of shortage of monitoring devices in voltage sags assessment, this paper presents a Monte Carlo assessment method based on combination weights. Assessment work focuses on impact on node voltage caused by short circuit. Firstly, an indicator system covering power line characteristic and environment effects is established considering easy accessibility of data and using G1 method and entropy method to evaluate failure probability of power lines. Compared with existing one, this indicator system is closer to real conditions of power grid, correctly displaying frequency distribution of short circuit faults. Then an appropriate fault probability model is designed. BPA program is used for Monte Carlo simulation of grid. Research results have certain guiding significance for power grid improvement and mitigation of device installation. Finally, an example analysis of a large city power grid is given to prove effectiveness of this method.

• 出版日期2016-5-5
• 单位华南理工大学