科研之友
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摘要
Complexity of modern and large ships poses a challenge to effective and comprehensive reliability and safety assessment of the propeller operations. The marine propulsion system forms the fundamental of ships' operations. The propeller reliability and safety directly affects the safe operation of the ship including its cost performance. Therefore, focusing this research on examination of safety and reliability of the propeller operations is paramount. In view of this, propeller operations are analysed to facilitate identification of their various failure modes and associated risk implications under uncertainty. Furthermore, advanced algorithms, such as fuzzy logic, evidential reasoning (ER), analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and expected utility theory, are used to develop a robust methodology that can be employed in assessment of safety and reliability of the propeller operations. Application of the developed methodology shows that the safety and reliability of ship propeller operations are not at optimal levels. These results show that a combination of fuzzy logic, ER and AHP algorithms can be used to assess the propeller operations' safety and reliability to a certain degree of confidence, while expected utility theory can reveal the risk implications of the various failure modes. For instance, expected utility theory is used to find out that wake induced forced oscillations of the blades is the riskiest failure mode of the ship propeller operations.
- 出版日期2017
- 单位中国石油大学（北京）
