Determining fluctuations and cycles of corn price in Iran

作者：Fakari Behzad; Farsi Mohammad Mehdi^*; Kojouri Mostafa

来源：Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika, 2013, 59(8): 373-380.

DOI：10.17221/141/2012-agricecon

• corn
• GARCH
• harmonic pattern
• Iran agricultural mercantile exchange
• price fluctuations

Corn is the third important agricultural product. It is an important input in the poultry production and the basic elements of edible oil, starch, glucose, and raw material in industrial production of ethanol and some other products. The aim of this study is to find strategies to avoid price volatility, hence, the harmonic method has been used to investigate the corn price cycle and the GARCH model has been used to investigate its fluctuation. The harmonic method results showed long-term cycles in the period of 21 months in analyzing the period and the GARCH model result indicated that the corn price fluctuations causes more fluctuations in the corn future prices, in addition the error terms that have less contribution in the conditional variance. Based on the characteristics of the corn price variation obtained in this study, the policymakers should provide a proper condition to encourage sellers and buyers to deal in the Agricultural Mercantile Exchange and use future and option contract to control the price volatilities.

• 出版日期2013