Modeling and evaluation of uncertainty set considering wind power prediction error correlation

作者：Sun Jian; Liu Bin; Liu Feng; Wei Wei; Zhou Zuochun; Yuan Qingfang

来源：Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2014, 38(18): 27-32 and 98.

DOI：10.7500/AEPS20131125002

• Error correlation
• Robust optimization
• Uncertainty measures
• Uncertainty modeling
• Wind power predictions

Advanced robust scheduling technology is one of the most economical and effective means to deal with output uncertainty. Usually, uncertainty set is used for describing the prediction error of wind power generation. It does not require the probability distribution of prediction errors and can cover all realizations of wind generation prediction errors with given confidence level. In our work, existing models of uncertainty set are evaluated using real data in wind farm operations. The study shows that unreasonable uncertainty sets may occur if the correlation of prediction errors is neglected. Furthermore, a criterion of wind generation uncertainty is proposed, based on which a new ellipsoidal modeling method is derived to incorporate the correlation of prediction errors. Given a confidence level in the sense of probability, the proposed uncertainty set can greatly reduce the measure of prediction errors with convexity guarantee. This facilitates mitigating conservativeness of robust optimization decision making process in power systems.

• 出版日期2014
• 单位清华大学