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摘要
Influenced by various environmental and meteorological factors, wind speed presents stochastic and unstable characteristics, which makes it difficult to forecast. To enhance the forecasting accuracy, this study contributes to short-term multi-step hybrid wind speed forecasting (WSF) models using wavelet packet decomposition (WPD), feature selection (FS) and an extreme learning machine (ELM) with parameter optimization. In the model, the WPD technique is applied to decompose the empirical wind speed data into different, relatively stable components to reduce the influence of the unstable characteristics of wind speed. A hybrid particle swarm optimization gravitational search algorithm (HPSOGSA) combining conventional PSOGSA with binary PSOGSA (BPSOGSA) is utilized to realize the FS and parameter optimization simultaneously. The PSOGSA is employed to tune the parameter combination of input weights and biases in ELM, while BPSOGSA is exploited to select the most suitable features from the candidate input variables determined by a partial autocorrelation function for reconstruction of the input matrix for ELM. The proposed forecasting strategy carries out multi-step short-term WSF using mean half-hour historical wind speed data collected from a wind farm situated in Anhui, China. To investigate the forecasting results of the hybrid model, a lot of comparisons and analyses are executed. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed WPD-ELM model with FS and parameter optimization can effectively catch the non-linear characteristics hidden in wind speed data and provide satisfactory WSF performance.
