Development of a prediction model for 10-year risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in middle-aged Japanese: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study Cohort II

作者：Michikawa Takehiro; Inoue Manami^*; Sawada None; Iwasaki Motoki; Tanaka Yasuhito; Shimazu Taichi; Sasazuki Shizuka; Yamaji Taiki; Mizokami Masashi; Tsugane Shoichiro

来源：Preventive Medicine, 2012, 55(2): 137-143.

DOI：10.1016/j.ypmed.2012.05.017

• Hepatocellular carcinoma
• Lifestyle
• Hepatitis virus
• Prediction
• Population-based

Objective. The purpose of the present study was to develop a risk estimation model for the 10-year risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that could be easily used in a general population to aid in the prevention of HCC. %26lt;br%26gt;Methods. Our prediction model was derived from data obtained on 17,654 Japanese aged 40 to 69 years who participated in health checkups (follow-up: 1993-2006). Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to obtain coefficients for each predictor. %26lt;br%26gt;Results. During follow-up, a total of 104 cases of HCC were newly diagnosed. After checking the model fit, we incorporated age, sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, diabetes, coffee consumption, and hepatitis B and C virus infection into the prediction model. The model showed satisfactory discrimination (Harrell%26apos;s c-index = 0.94) and was well calibrated (the overall observed/expected ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval = 0.83-1.29). We also developed a simple risk scoring system. Those subjects with total scores of 17 or more under this system (score range: 1 to 19) had an estimated 10-year HCC risk of over 90%; those with 4 points or less had an estimated risk of less than 0.1%. %26lt;br%26gt;Conclusion. We developed a simple 10-year risk prediction model for HCC in the Japanese general population as a public education tool.

• 出版日期2012-8