An index for predicting the onset of monsoon over Kerala

作者：Puranik S S; Ray K C Sinha; Sen P N; Kumar P Pradeep^*

来源：Current Science, 2013, 105(7): 954-961.

• Forecasting index
• kinetic energy
• monsoon
• outgoing longwave radiation

Forecasting the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is one of the important events in the operational forecasts of the India Meteorological Department. There are several criteria followed across the forecasting community to achieve this. In this article, we propose an index (Monsoon Onset Forecast Index; MOFI), developed with averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and averaged kinetic energy as proxies. Twenty-year composite analysis shows significant increase in the kinetic energy and decrease in the OLR five days before the onset, and the MOFI becomes positive. Application of this index has been tested for 13 subsequent years and it is found that the index performs well.

• 出版日期2013-10-10