A hybrid model (SARIMA-SVM) for short-term power forecasting of a small-scale grid-connected photovoltaic plant

作者：Bouzerdoum M; Mellit A^*; Pavan A Massi

来源：Solar Energy, 2013, 98: 226-235.

DOI：10.1016/j.solener.2013.10.002

• Photovoltaic systems
• Produced power
• Forecasting
• SARIMA
• SVM
• Hybrid SARIMA-SVM model

In this work, a new hybrid model for short-term power forecasting of a grid-connected photovoltaic plant is introduced. The new model combines two well-known methods: the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average method (SARIMA) and the support vector machines method (SVMs). An experimental database of the power produced by a small-scale 20 kWp GCPV plant is used to develop and verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in short-term forecasting. Hourly forecasts of the power produced by the plant were carried out for a few days showing a quite good accuracy. A comparative study has also been introduced showing that the developed hybrid model performs better than both the SARIMA and the SVM model.

• 出版日期2013-12