Appraisal of the support vector machine to forecast residential heating demand for the District Heating system based on the monthly overall natural gas consumption

作者：Izadyar Nima; Ghadamian Hossein; Ong Hwai Chyuan; Moghadam Zeinab; Tong Chong Wen; Shamshirband Shahaboddin

来源：Energy, 2015, 93: 1558-1567.

DOI：10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.015

• Residential natural gas demand
• DHS (District heating system)
• Estimation
• Wavelet and firefly algorithms (FFAs)
• SVM (Support vector machine)

DHS (District Heating System) is one of the most efficient technologies which has been used to meet residential thermal demand. In this study, the most accurate forecasting of the residential heating demand is investigated via soft computing method. The objective of this study is to obtain the most accurate prediction of the residential heating consumption to employ forecasting result for designing optimum DHS system as a possible substitute of a pipeline natural gas in BAHARESTAN Town. For this purpose, three Support Vector Machine (SVM) models namely SVM coupled with the discrete wavelet transform (SVM-Wavelet), the firefly algorithm (SVM-FFA) and using the radial basis SVM-RBF) were analyzed. The estimation and prediction results of these models were compared with two other soft computing methods (ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and GP (Genetic programming)) by using three statistical indicators i.e. RMSE (root means square error), coefficient of determination (R-2) and Pearson coefficient (r). Based on the experimental outputs, the SVM-Wavelet method can lead to slightly accurate forecasting of the monthly overall natural gas demand.

• 出版日期2015-12-15