Multiharmonic model of seismic activity in Kamchatka

作者：Sobolev G A^*; Valeev S G; Faskhutdinova V A

来源：Izvestiya-Physics of the Solid Earth, 2010, 46(12): 1019-1034.

DOI：10.1134/S1069351310120013

Based on the uniform catalogue of earthquakes of the minimum energy class 8.5 for 1962-2008, multiharmonic models of seismic activity in Kamchatka are developed. The main harmonic components with periods from a few days to 12 years are identified. Both the entire catalogue and its modified versions obtained by the elimination of aftershocks and clusters, as well as nonoverlapping time series were used to study the stability of the models. The forward-prediction testing showed that in the models with weekly averaged initial data, periods of increased and reduced seismic activity lasting for several weeks are predicted with high confidence on an interval of up to 1.8% of the education period. This testifies for the presence of deterministic components in the seismic activity.

• 出版日期2010-12