A Spatial Real Options Approach for Modeling Land Use Change: Assessing the Potential for Poplar Energy Plantations in Alberta

作者：Hauer Grant^*; Luckert M K; Yemshanov Denys; Unterschultz Jim

来源：Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2017, 65(2): 271-292.

DOI：10.1111/cjag.12121

Land use change models based on historical behavior have proven useful in predicting and understanding determinants of change. Such approaches are not possible where land use change data are absent. In this paper, we develop a normative spatial model that considers option values associated with land conversion between agriculture and forestry and their differing time scales. The model is applied in a case study regarding the potential for a cellulosic biofuel industry in Alberta. Results indicate the importance of future patterns of prices in influencing decisions to switch from agriculture to bioenergy production, and suggest that cellulosic plantations are not likely to prevail over agricultural land uses.

• 出版日期2017-6