A stochastic concession model for infrastructure projects under build-operate-transfer schemes

作者：Zhu, Yinghua; Xu, Feng^*; Hu, Hao

来源：Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science), 2016, 21(3): 320-327.

DOI：10.1007/s12204-016-1728-x

• Build operate transfers
• Concession periods
• Infrastructure project
• Key factors
• Monte Carlo simulation methods
• Private investors
• Risk attitude

Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.

• 出版日期2016
• 单位上海交通大学