A NOVEL CLASSIFICATION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE ANALYSIS BASED ON HIERARCHICAL PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM

作者：Geng Huan-tong^*; Sun Jia-qing; Zhang Wei; Wu Zheng-xue

来源：Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2017, 23(1): 113-120.

• tropical cyclone intensity
• hierarchical PSO algorithm
• classification and forecasting
• C4.5 Algorithm

Based on the tropical cyclone (TC) observations in the western North Pacific from 2000 to 2008, this paper adopts the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm of evolutionary computation to optimize one comprehensive classification rule, and apply the optimized classification rule to the forecasting of TC intensity change. In the process of the optimization, the strategy of hierarchical pruning has been adopted in the PSO algorithm to narrow the search area, and thus to enhance the local search ability, i.e. hierarchical PSO algorithm. The TC intensity classification rule involves core attributes including 12-HMWS, MPI, and Rainrate which play vital roles in TC intensity change. The testing accuracy using the new mined rule by hierarchical PSO algorithm reaches 89.6%. The current study shows that the novel classification method for TC intensity change analysis based on hierarchic PSO algorithm is not only easy to explain the source of rule core attributes, but also has great potential to improve the forecasting of TC intensity change.

• 出版日期2017-3
• 单位南京信息工程大学