An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK general election opinion polls

作者：Sturgis Patrick; Kuha Jouni; Baker Nick; Callegaro Mario; Fisher Stephen; Green Jane; Jennings Will; Lauderdale Benjamin E.; Smith Patten

来源：Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series A: Statistics in Society , 2018, 181(3): 757-781.

DOI：10.1111/rssa.12329

• Election polling
• Late swing
• Quota sampling
• Turnout weighting
• Unrepresentative samples

The opinion polls that were undertaken before the 2015 UK general election underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour by an average of 7 percentage points. This collective failure led politicians and commentators to question the validity and utility of political polling and raised concerns regarding a broader public loss of confidence in survey research. We assess the likely causes of the 2015 polling errors. We begin by setting out a formal account of the statistical methodology and assumptions that are required for valid estimation of party vote shares by using quota sampling. We then describe the current approach of polling organizations for estimating sampling variability and suggest a new method based on bootstrap resampling. Next, we use poll microdata to assess the plausibility of different explanations of the polling errors. Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling errors in 2015 was unrepresentative sampling.

• 出版日期2018-6